Herb Morgan (Efficient Market Advisors,
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Let’s look at valuations,
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This chart measures S 500 fair value by comparing S 500 Price/Operating Earnings to the 10 Year Treasury Yield (See S 500 Index ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY)),
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Fundamentals: The scales are tipped in favor of equities Pre Tax corporate profits increased $91.8 billion in the second quarter,
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Corporate profits are at an all time high percentage of GDP as published by the St,
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September 1 Nonfarm Payroll data was positive and employment remains "full" at roughly 4,
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Despite full employment,
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A slow orderly devaluation of a residential real estate market that had advanced beyond reasonable valuation is progressing nicely,
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Corporate Health is Strong

o Low default rate on corporate bonds,
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o Low credit spreads on corporate bonds to treasuries indicates market confidence in repayment ability,
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o Corporations have extended debt maturities and reduced total leverage thereby reducing the risk to equities,
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o Cash holdings relative to assets have risen substantially as shown in the accompanying chart from the Federal Reserve. Large cash balances can be used to raise dividends,
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o Second quarter earnings were strong and seemed to validate the theory that companies in general are shying away from giving overly optimistic guidance,
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o Tax receipts are up sharply for the US Treasury with the second quarter deficit coming in well below expectations,
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Nike Kobe 9 Low EM Home Up To 65Off In Our Outlet Store. (US Treasury fiscal year ends in September) Treasury receipts are on pace to be up 13% vs,
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o Inflationary pressures are easing substantially as evidenced by recent price action in oil,
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o For the past year stock valuations have remained low as the prospects for higher interest rates and inflation loomed,
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Technicals: Stocks are quietly making noise While it’s hardly headline news yet,
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2013 Nike Free Run Líneas Azul Gris Hombres Nosotros Outlet Store, stocks are advancing nicely. Today’s action helped bring the fifty day moving average of stock prices above the 100 day moving average confirming the uptrend that began in late July. (Source BigCharts) Get your rally shoes on!

At Efficient Market Advisors,
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