By David Sterman

Momentum investing can lead to powerful gains. That’s why some investors suggest you should always "let your winners
Nike Roshe Run PRM Men Blue Glow Volt White ride," presumably to even higher prices.
Air Jordan 6 Infrared 2014 This was my logic when
Nike Roshe Run Sand Color Alarm Red I recommended shares of Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX) last August.

The footwear maker’s stock had already surged 1,200% in just 15
Air Jordan 3Lab5 Black Metallic Silver months, and shares still
Men Nike Free Run 3 Deep Royal Blue Silver Volt Quilted
Cardinals 7s looked reasonably valued. Since then, they’ve risen another 85%, now trading at about $26 a share. However, letting
Women Nike Free Run 2 Red White Black this winner keep riding may prove risky shares are valued well
Air Jordan 11 Low IE White Metallic Silver Black above the peer group and investor expectations about future operating performance are
Ray Allen 13s quite
Women Nike Free Run 3 Hot Punch Neon Pink Volt Quilted high.

(Click chart
Air Jordan Spizike New York Knicks Orange to enlarge)

But we live in a different
Men Nike Free Run 2 Shield Stealth Black Yellow Grey reality now. After a strong two year run for the major indexes, a cautious tone has set in and momentum investing has become an unsafe strategy. Instead,
White Cement 3s it’s
Air Jordan 11 Low White Black Red time to play defense
Nike Roshe Run Hyp Women Navy Dark Grey and seek out names that
Women Nike Free Run 3.0 V4 Volt Reflective Silver Platinum will hold up in down
Women Nike Free Run 2 Shield Stealth Black Orange White markets, while
Men Nike Free Run 4.0 Dark Grey Reflect Silver Total Orange still
Air Jordan 13 Squadron Blue posting upside in rising markets. Looking at the peer group for Crocs, I can’t help but notice the stunning valuation for rival Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS).

Through its 4,833 Payless ShoeSource stores around the globe,
Men Nike Free Run 5.0+ Olive Black Volt the company
Men Nike Free Run 3 Deep Royal Blue Silver Volt Quilted designs
Bobcats 10s and sells footwear and related accessories under many widely known brands,
Air Jordan 3 Powder Blue including Sperry Top
Nike Roshe Run Women Grey Pink Sider, Stride
Bred 13s Rite, Keds and Airwalk. It’s not a
Slim Jenkins 9s high growth business, but it’s wildly profitable and shares are quite
Air Jordan 10 Doernbecher cheap, having fallen by a third
Men Nike Free Run 2 Anthracite Black Red White since late April. Shares now trade right
Nike Roshe Run PRM Men Black Sport Green Volt at book value, which makes the stock a compelling value play.

Why the selloff?
Nike Free 3.0 Light Bone Reflective Silver Iguana Green Men For starters, the flagship Payless
Air Jordan 4 Oreo 2015 stores
Venom Green 10s have
Spizike Easter seen
Carmine 6s a slowdown in
Men Nike Free Run 2 Blue White Orange traffic in recent months because
Air Jordan 7 French Blue 2015 its lower income
Men Nike Free Run 2 Anthracite Black Red White demographic is still feeling
Women Nike Free Run 4.0 V2 Dark Grey Cool Grey Volt Quilted the lingering effects
Nike Roshe Run Woven Women White Black of the recession
Spizike Space Blue and persistently high unemployment. Rising gas
Air Jordan 9 Slim Jenkins prices also affect consumer spending,
Nike Roshe Run Women Black Solar Red since
Women Nike Free Run 5.0+ Blue Grey White many people have to cut back in other areas of their budget to cope. So when gas
Men Nike Free Run 3 Chrome Yellow Silver Platinum White Quilted spikes to $4 a gallon, footwear
Air Jordan 6 Slam Dunk sales
Infrared 23 3s inevitably take a
Motorboat Jones 9s hit. Because of
Powder Blue 10s this, investors are assuming sales will
Air Jordan 6 Rings Black Dark Charcoal remain
Air Jordan 4 Toro Bravo weak for
Nike Roshe Run Army Green Meihei at least
Nike Roshe Run Hyp Women Black Pink the next few quarters.
Air Jordan 3 Joker In addition, feeling the
Men Nike Free Run 3 Pure Platinum Reflect Silver Volt heat of this slowdown, the
Air Jordan 13 Black Infrared company’s CEO, Matthew Rubel, recently resigned.

However, the beauty of this business is
Air Jordan 5 Bel Air in its long term
Air Jordan 6 Black Infrared 2014 consistency. Footwear
Air Jordan 5 Black Grape purchases can be delayed, but
Air Jordan Spizike Space Blue not avoided altogether shoes invariably wear
Women Nike Free Run 3.0 Magenta Reflect Silver Pure Platinum out from use. Smooth out the annual gyrations,
Black Cement 4s and Collective Brands manages to boost sales 3% to
Nike Roshe Run Wine Red Black White 4% every year, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) growing at twice this pace.

Ironically,
Legend Blue 11s the recently departed Rubel had
Sport Blue 3s begun
Air Jordan 6 Black Infrared 2014 to put
Men Nike Free Run 3 Cool Grey Silver Sail University Red Collective Brands on
Air Jordan 6 Retro Olympic 2012 an
Air Jordan 6 Brazil World Cup even better trajectory, boosting the wholesale distribution of shoes
Tokyo23 5s to other retailers (which
Air Jordan 13 Reflective Silver currently represent 20% of sales) and pursuing international expansion (representing 14% of sales).

From fiscal
Air Jordan 7 Olympic Gold Medal Pack (January) 2007 to 2009, the
Nike Roshe Run PRM Men Obsidian Volt Sail White company generated $45 million in annual free cash flow. This figure shot up to
Chicago Bulls 10s $204 million in 2010 and slightly declined
Air Jordan 6 Rings Black Dark Charcoal to $174 million in 2011.
Women Nike Free Run 2 Shield Grey Black Purple The robust cash
Nike Roshe Run Men Grey Black New Green flow is
Air Jordan 12 Gamma Blue helping the
Air Jordan 6 Slam Dunk stock in several ways. First, Collective Brands has begun
Calvin Bailey 9s to repurchase shares more
Carmine 6s aggressively
Black Toe 1s
Men Nike Free Run 2 Grey White Royal Blue it
Men Nike Free Run 3.0 V4 Wolf Grey Reflect Silver Blue Glow bought back 53,000
Women Nike Free Run 5.0+ Pink Grey of
Women Nike Free Run 5.0+ Blue Grey White its own shares for $1.1 million during the
Air Jordan 6 Infrared 23 first quarter of the year. Second, the company pared $100 million from long term debt in
Air Jordan Spizike Easter the past year, which now totals roughly
Fontay Montana 9s $658
Women Nike Free Run 2 Shield Grey Black Purple million. If current cash flow trends persist, then Collective Brands can maintain both of these trends.

To rebuild the stock price, the board will
Lady Liberty 10s need to appoint a CEO with vision. The new leader will have to implement needed corrective actions perhaps accelerating the international store
Air Jordan 2 Infrared Cement expansion or taking a
Women Nike Free Run 3.0 V4 Total Orange Neon Reflective Silver Wolf Grey fresh look at merchandising efforts. Another bold move would be to cull the
Air Jordan 3 Retro Black Cement 2011 weakest
Air Jordan 5 White Varsity Red Obsidian 10% of stores from the company’s 4,800 store
Black Toe 14s base (current
Air Jordan 14 Black Toe 2014 plans
Playoffs 12s call
Men Nike Free5.0 Hyper Blue Volt Black Blue Tint for a net reduction of just 30 stores). At
Air Jordan 9 Olive 2012 a minimum, renegotiating lower lease rates while mall operators are in a
Men Nike Free Run 3.0 V4 Gym Red Reflective Silver Pro Platinum weakened
Air Jordan 4 Columbia 2015 state may
Men Nike Free Run 3.0 V4 Black Gym Red Wolf Grey help boost margins.

To be sure, the
Men Nike Free Run 2 Anthracite White Green Grey Black loss
Air Jordan 10 Retro White Old Royal Stealth of a CEO and a same
Doernbecher 10s
Nike Roshe Run Women Black White store sales drop warrant a pullback in a stock’s price. But
Fear 4s at
Men Nike Free Run 2 Grey White Teal Blue $14
Women Nike Free Run 3.0 V4 Total Orange Neon Reflective Silver Wolf Grey a
Air Jordan 3 Infrared 23 share,
Powder Blue 3s this
Air Jordan 11 Low Infrared 23 stock
Nike Free Run 3.0 Prism Blue Reflect Silver Pure Platinum Women is too cheap to ignore.

If the market tanks or the company
Air Jordan 9 Black Photo Blue White fails to boost results, then shares could simply languish at current levels (receiving support from
Air Jordan 4 Oreo 2015 the $14.42 book value and EBITDA multiple of 4). However, in a brighter scenario of a rising market, improving consumer sentiment or a well regarded
Fear 3s new CEO hire, this stock could quickly
Sport Blue 3s move
Air Jordan 11 Low White Black True Red back to the low $20s, where it stood this spring. That’s 50% upside, with minimal
Last Shot 14s downside.

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