Dickey,
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As of yesterday, he has 20 wins. That,
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Unfortunately, for a few pitchers, it removes a a great deal of signal along with the noise. There are some pitchers who do have the ability to induce bad contact at a significantly higher rate than their peers. But because batting average of balls in play BABIP is affected by so many factors outside of pitcher skill, it can take years to establish that someone can reliably get outs in a field more often than the average pitcher does.

Matt Cain is an example of career sample size bearing out the ability: He’s posted a .264 BABIP in over 1,
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FIP, however,
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Dickey might not have Cain’s sample size, but his knuckleball is a Get Out of FIP Free card. The pitch has caused hitters to make weak contact throughout its history. Dickey’s BABIP in 2012 is .273, 20 points below this year’s league average and right around his career average since he became a knuckleballer exclusively.

FIP,
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As an alternative, Baseball Reference’s WAR uses a runs component that includes balls in play results, which makes it a better stat for this race. Dickey is seven tenths of a win ahead of Gonzalez on that list but four tenths of a win behind overall leader Johnny Cueto. This is not an easy Cy Young race.

There are lots of other run and win estimators out there (Baseball Prospectus’ Fair Run Average is a good one too) that have all kinds of advantages and disadvantages over their competitors. Behind each statistic is a different epistemology about what makes a pitcher the best. Is it how he should have done, theoretically,
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These are the questions that make award discussions worth having. My worry is that unless voters are really interested in statistics,
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